全球重大疫情对经济系统的影响及其响应的比较研究     

李国平  杨艺  徐祯  李涛 《世界地理研究》2020,29(6):1091-1101

新型冠状病毒疫情扩散范围广、感染人数多，被世界卫生组织列为“国际公共卫生紧急事件”。以2003年中国非典型肺炎、2009年墨西哥甲型H1N1流感、2015年韩国中东呼吸道综合症和截至目前的2020年全球新冠疫情作为典型案例，比较全球重大疫情的经济影响与各地的响应措施，有助于积极探索更好地应对本次新冠疫情经济影响的政策响应途径。在历次疫情影响下，中国、墨西哥、韩国、美国等国家的经济系统都受到了突发疫情的重大影响。2003年中国第二季度GDP增速环比降低1.98%，交通运输、住宿、餐饮等第三产业首当其冲；墨西哥2009年GDP增长率降至-5.286%，旅游、零售餐饮与猪肉行业受到较大冲击；韩国2015年GDP增速由2014年的3.3%降至2.79%，旅游业与零售业的市场需求受到极大抑制；美国2020年第二季度实际GDP按年率计算下滑32.9%，是自1947年以来的最大降幅。为此，各国政府积极响应和应对，多策并举减轻疫情对经济系统的短期冲击：一是通过设立专项资金、增加财政预算，全面支持经济复苏；二是通过为企业提供经营补贴、延缓税收缴纳等举措，减轻企业尤其中小企业的经营负担；三是通过电商平台、城市宣传、简化签证手续等举措，振兴旅游业和商业发展。为了更好地应对此次新型冠状病毒疫情对经济系统的影响，各国应当统筹疫情防控与经济发展，积极采取减费降税、减少企业负担、扶持第三产业等响应举措，尽快恢复正常的世界经济秩序。  相似文献   

Effect of farmland expansion on drought over the past century in Songnen Plain,Northeast China     

Yu  Wanhui  Zhang  Lijuan  Zhang  Hongwen  Jiang  Lanqi  Zhang  Ankang  Pan  Tao 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(3):439-454

The effects of human activities on climate change are a significant area of research in the field of global environmental change. Land use and land cover change(LUCC) has a greater effect on climate than greenhouse gases, and the effect of farmland expansion on regional drought is particularly important. From the 1910 s to the 2010 s, cultivated land in Songnen Plain increased by 2.67 times, the area of cultivated land increased from 4.92×10~4 km~2 to 13.14×10~4 km~2, and its percentage of all land increased from 25% to 70%. This provides an opportunity to study the effects of the conversion of natural grassland to farmland on climate. In this study, the drought indices in Songnen Plain were evaluated from the 1910 s to the 2010 s, and the effect of farmland expansion on drought was investigated using statistical methods and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model based on UK's Climatic Research Unit data. The resulting dryness index, Palmer drought severity index, and standardized precipitation index values indicated a significant drying trend in the study area from 1981 to 2010. This trend can be attributed to increases in maximum temperature and diurnal temperature range, which increased the degree of drought. Based on statistical analysis and simulation, the maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and sensible heat flux increased during the growing season in Songnen Plain over the past 100 years, while the minimum temperature and latent heat flux decreased. The findings indicate that farmland expansion caused a drying trend in Songnen Plain during the study period.  相似文献   

A hybrid integrated deep learning model for the prediction of citywide spatio-temporal flow volumes     

Yibin Ren  Huanfa Chen  Tao Cheng  Yang Zhang  Ge Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(4):802-823

ABSTRACT

The spatio-temporal residual network (ST-ResNet) leverages the power of deep learning (DL) for predicting the volume of citywide spatio-temporal flows. However, this model, neglects the dynamic dependency of the input flows in the temporal dimension, which affects what spatio-temporal features may be captured in the result. This study introduces a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network into the ST-ResNet to form a hybrid integrated-DL model to predict the volumes of citywide spatio-temporal flows (called HIDLST). The new model can dynamically learn the temporal dependency among flows via the feedback connection in the LSTM to improve accurate captures of spatio-temporal features in the flows. We test the HIDLST model by predicting the volumes of citywide taxi flows in Beijing, China. We tune the hyperparameters of the HIDLST model to optimize the prediction accuracy. A comparative study shows that the proposed model consistently outperforms ST-ResNet and several other typical DL-based models on prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we discuss the distribution of prediction errors and the contributions of the different spatio-temporal patterns.  相似文献   

Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region     

YanRan Lü  Tong Jiang  YanJun Wang  BuDa Su  JinLong Huang  Hui Tao 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):389-403

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.  相似文献   

滇西南地区南汀河断裂带三维深部电性结构及其孕震环境   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

叶涛  黄清华  陈小斌 《地球物理学报》2018,61(11):4504-4517

南汀河断裂带为滇西南地区活动断裂体系中规模最大的一条北东向断裂，其构造活动及地震危险性一直备受关注.本文基于覆盖云南境内南汀河断裂带的大地电磁测深宽频带阵列数据，利用大地电磁三维反演解释技术，首次获得了南汀河断裂带的精细三维深部电性结构.在上地壳深度，南汀河断裂带西南段与中段的电性结构表现出沿构造走向的高导条带特征，北东段表现为高阻结构.该高阻结构可能为临沧—勐海花岗岩体的电性反映，指示南汀河断裂可能未切穿该花岗岩带.在中下地壳深度，南汀河断裂带西南段存在大范围高导层，北东段则表现为整体性的高阻地壳，因此南汀河断裂北东段可能具有发生强震的介质结构背景.南汀河断裂带西南段的耿马地震区深部呈现北东向与北北西向的"X"型高导构造样式，该高导结构以南存在一个显著高阻异常体，1988年耿马M_S7.2地震以及2015年沧源M_S5.5级地震均发生于该高阻体与"X"型高导条带的电性边界.青藏高原东南缘绕东构造结流入滇西地区的中下地壳流可能受到南汀河断裂北东段中下地壳高阻体的阻挡而呈分流式分布于保山地块以及澜沧江断裂以东.  相似文献   

Variation in soil saturated hydraulic conductivity along the hillslope of collapsing granite gullies   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Xiaoqian Duan  Yusong Deng  Yu Tao  Yangbo He  Lirong Lin 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(5):803-817

Saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) affects the soil hydrological process and is influenced by many factors that exhibit strong spatial variations. To accurately measure K_s and its scale, spatial variability and relationship with collapsing gullies, we analysed four double-ring infiltrometer diameters in three soil layers during in situ experiments designed to measure K_s in two typical collapsing gullies (three slope sites) in Tongcheng County of China. The results showed that K_s increased with increasing inner ring diameter, but no significant difference existed between inner diameters of 30 and 40 cm. The K_s in red soil layers was higher than that in sandy soil layers, the transition layers had the lowest values. K_s also varied with slope position, gradually decreasing with distance from the gully head. The suggestion is that the spatial variation in K_s is affected not only by the intrinsic soil properties but also by the interaction with the collapsing gully.  相似文献   

多维地震作用下大跨空间结构的减震控制分析          下载免费PDF全文

赵祥  刘忠华  王社良  杨涛  展猛 《地震工程学报》2018,40(3):398-405

考虑到多维地震输入对网架结构的不利影响,基于形状记忆合金超弹性,研制出一种兼具自复位、高耗能及放大功能于一体的形状记忆合金复合黏滞阻尼器(Hybrid Shape Memory Alloy Viscous Dampers,简称HSMAVD),并通过试验研究该阻尼器在循环荷载作用下的力学性能;然后以平面四角锥网架模型为基础,将该阻尼器替换部分网架结构杆件,并分析该阻尼器减震控制效果。结果表明形状记忆合金与黏滞阻尼器复合后具有良好的协同工作能力,可有效发挥形状记忆合金的超弹性和黏滞阻尼器的速度相关特性,使其具有稳定的滞回性能和良好的耗能能力;采用阻尼杆件替换原杆件的方法既能对结构进行有效的减震控制,又不改变原有的结构形式,是一种优越的减震控制方法,并为HSMAVD被动控制系统在结构抗震中的实际应用提供新思路。  相似文献   

近距离上层隧道施工对下层隧道的扰动影响          下载免费PDF全文

唐强森  刘涛 《地震工程学报》2018,40(3):591-596,603

针对近距离上层隧道施工时给下层隧道稳定性造成扰动影响的现状,基于简支土体梁力学模型,研究下层隧道顶部在周期性扰动力作用下的系统振动特性,得到顶部垂直位移的动态响应数学表达式,为定量掌握最大位移峰值的大小与出现时刻提供理论依据,指出考虑振动因素时上下层隧道安全距离的确定方法。结合具体算例探索扰动力等因素对最大位移的作用规律,结果表明:扰动力振幅和隧道跨度分别增加1倍和2倍时,最大位移峰值相应增大1倍和23.9倍;隧道层间垂距和土体弹性模量分别增加2倍和3倍时,最大位移峰值相应减小88.2%和70%。当主要影响因素变化时,最大位移的波动大周期延长、波动震荡性加剧,特别是峰值处的震荡幅值增大,隧道顶部稳定性受到明显影响。  相似文献   

自适应虚同相轴方法压制地震层间多次波          下载免费PDF全文

刘嘉辉  胡天跃  彭更新 《地球物理学报》2018,61(3):1196-1210

地震数据中发育的层间多次波是影响速度分析和偏移成像的精度和可靠性的关键.通常情况下，层间多次波的动校正量、叠加速度和频率与一次波并无明显差异，从而对识别、预测和压制多次波带来了极大挑战.传统虚同相轴方法基于物理图像和定性公式，其预测的层间多次波振幅和相位精度难以满足实际需求，造成了其对匹配算法的过度依赖.本文针对传统虚同相轴方法的理论缺陷和计算精度问题，通过理论推导得到了新的自适应虚同相轴方法.相比于传统方法，自适应虚同相轴方法能够显著提高压制多次波能力，同时减少对匹配算法的依赖.本文给出了自适应虚同相轴方法的推导过程，并运用一维和二维模型算例验证了方法相较于传统虚同相轴方法的多次波预测精度优势.通过在PLUTO模型和实际陆地地震数据上的应用实例，证明了本文新研究的自适应虚同相轴方法对去除层间多次波，恢复并突出目标储层同相轴，提高地震成像分辨率的显著作用.  相似文献   

城市场景结构感知的网格模型简化算法     

张春森  张会  郭丙轩  彭哲 《测绘学报》2020,49(3):334-342

针对二次误差测度(QEM)网格简化算法全局几何特征信息损失严重的缺点,提出一种具有结构感知功能面向城市三维模型重建的网格简化算法。该算法顾及城市影像中平面结构特征,以代理平面为全局特征约束条件,使模型在简化过程中全局结构特征更多地被保持,以利于多层次细节模型(LOD技术)、网格优化提速等模型后续操作。以倾斜摄影获取影像生成的初始三角网格模型为试验数据,采用所给算法对其进行网格简化并与QEM算法进行对比。结果表明:所给算法简化精度及简化效率均优于QEM算法。  相似文献